Sean Bossinger’s Doings

For my friends, far and near…  it looks like we MAY just scrape by this one.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 311457
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EARLIER THIS MORNING REPORTED A
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 138 KNOTS AT 700 MB AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 950 MB FROM A DROP AND AN EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF
944 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT FRANCES HAS AN OUTSTANDING CLOUD
PATTERN WITH A LARGE EYE…BANDING FEATURES AND EXCELLET OUTFLOW.
THE LARGE EYE CAN ALSO BE OBSERVED IN THE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
DOPPLER RADAR. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS.
SINCE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM…SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER…FUTURE CHANGES IN INTENSITY
WILL PROBABLY BE CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES…A
PROCESS RATHER DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME
IS TO FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY AND KEEP THE HURRICANE
AS A CATEGORY 4 ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

FRANCES IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS. DURING THE
THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS…THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING BETWEEN THE
WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST STEERED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIGDE.
THEREAFTER…THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE VARIES WITH THE DIFFERENT
MODELS. CONSEQUENTLY…SOME MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE FARTHER WEST
OR CLOSER TO THE U.S. COAST THAN OTHERS. OVERALL…THE TREND OF THE
MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY IS TO TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST
EARLIER AND NONE OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE ECMWF
BRING THE HURRICANE TO EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE KEYS. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE RIGHT IS PRODUCED BY THE GFS WHICH BARELY
BRINGS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
HOWEVER…IT IS NORMAL FOR MODELS TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND I
WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST
MORE THE RIGHT…IF NECESSARY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      31/1500Z 20.0N  64.0W  115 KT
12HR VT    01/0000Z 20.4N  66.1W  120 KT
24HR VT    01/1200Z 21.5N  68.7W  125 KT
36HR VT    02/0000Z 22.5N  71.0W  125 KT
48HR VT    02/1200Z 23.5N  73.0W  125 KT
72HR VT    03/1200Z 25.5N  76.5W  125 KT
96HR VT    04/1200Z 27.5N  79.0W  125 KT
120HR VT    05/1200Z 30.5N  81.5W  115 KT

One of the models, the Canadian one (you Yellowknifers think you're SOOoooooo sophisticated…), still has it coming to us; but the rest of the models have it going elsewhere.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 300833
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

THE LATEST DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
MONITORING FRANCES INDICATES THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO
958 MB AND THAT THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE 99 KT.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT AN INTENSITY 90 KT.  HOWEVER…THE LAST FEW
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BETTER ORGANIZED CYCLONE…AND SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM TAFB AND 102 KT FROM SAB.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT…AND FOR THE MOMENT THIS
MAY BE GENEROUS.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATES TWO WELL-DEFINED
OUTER WIND MAXIMA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/9.  FRANCES REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR ABOUT 72 HR.
BEYOND THAT TIME…MOST LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE
SHOULD WEAKEN.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD MOVE FRANCES BASICALLY WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48-72 HR…FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
NORTHWESTWARD TURN.  THE SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION FLOWN
EARLIER TONIGHT SEEMS TO HAVE HELPED THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT…AS THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT
OF THEIR PREVIOUS TRACKS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE…AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MAY NOT ALLOW AS
MUCH NORTHWARD MOTION EARLY ON AS INDICATED BY THE MODELS.  AFTER
72 HR…THE TRACK IS DOWN THE CENTER OF THE MAIN DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL CALLS
FOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTH FLORIDA.

FRANCES MAY HAVE BEEN SUFFERING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN THE OBSERVED WEAKENING.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE
SHEAR TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR…AND BOTH SHIPS AND THE
GFDL FORECAST STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT…AND IT WOULD NOT BE A BIG SURPRISE IF
FRANCES GOT STRONGER THAN THE 115 KT OFFICIAL FORECAST OR THE 121
KT GFDL FORECAST.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS INCREASING SHEAR AT 72 HR
AND FORECASTS WEAKENING.  WHILE THIS IS POSSIBLE…THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS UNTIL THERE IS A CLEARER SIGNAL.  ONE
FLY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST OINTMENT IS THE PRESENCE OF THE OUTER
WIND MAXIMA…WHICH SUGGESTS CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR
AND THROW OFF THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/0900Z 19.0N  57.3W  105 KT
12HR VT    30/1800Z 19.1N  59.2W  105 KT
24HR VT    31/0600Z 19.6N  62.0W  110 KT
36HR VT    31/1800Z 20.2N  64.7W  115 KT
48HR VT    01/0600Z 21.0N  67.4W  115 KT
72HR VT    02/0600Z 22.5N  71.5W  115 KT
96HR VT    03/0600Z 24.5N  75.0W  115 KT
120HR VT    04/0600Z 27.0N  77.5W  115 KT

000
WTNT41 KNHC 300248
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

THE FIRST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION WAS IN THE HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS ENDING AT 23Z. THE LAST CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 954 MB…UP
FROM 949 MB A FEW HOURS EARLIER. 954 MB CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 108
KT. THE HIGHEST 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 118 KT AT A
POSITION ABOUT 9 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER…90 PERCENT OF 118
KT REDUCES TO A SURFACE WIND OF 106 KT. THERE WERE SEVERAL GPS
DROPSONDES NEAR THE EYEWALL. THE HIGHEST SURFACE WIND DETERMINED
FROM THESE DROPS WAS 107 KT USING APPROPRIATE REDUCTION TECHNIQUES.
THEREFORE THE MAXIMUM WIND IN FRANCES IS REDUCED FROM 115 TO 110 KT.

THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE WIND NEAR 110 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS AND
THEN REDUCES IT TO UNDER 100 KT AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFDL IS
SIMILAR. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE BUT THESE MODELS
ARE NOT AS SKILLFUL AS THE SHIPS AND GFDL. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS 110 KT THROUGH 120 HOURS AS A COMPROMISE OF THE ABOVE
GUIDANCE…REALIZING THAT OUR SKILL AT INTENSITY FORECASTING LEAVES
SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED…ESPECIALLY AT LONGER FORECAST PERIODS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/07. THE GLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE
MODELS SHOW A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 120 HOURS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE HOLDING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS SCENARIO ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS 50 TO
100 N MI SOUTH OF THE OTHER MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT THEN COMES
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BY 120 HOURS WHEN ALL OF THE MODELS TEND TO
CONVERGE ON THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS
AND IS SIMILAR TO IT AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

NOAA HAS FLOWN A SYNOPTIC SCALE MISSION TONIGHT AND DATA FROM THIS
MISSION IS BEING USED TO INITIALIZE THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. THIS
HOPEFULLY IMPROVED GUIDANCE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE NEXT ADVISORY
PACKAGE.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 18.9N 56.2W 110 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 19.1N 58.2W 110 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 19.5N 60.8W 110 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 20.0N 63.4W 110 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 20.8N 66.2W 110 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 22.5N 71.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 24.5N 74.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 04/0000Z 26.5N 77.0W 110 KT

$$

I'm sitting here with  watching “Unforgiven.”  It's one of the movies we've got from Netflix, but haven't gotten a chance to watch.

So, in the meantime, I've revamped my Journal.  I don't know if I like it or not - I think I like this layout a little better than the last.  It gives more room for my hideously large posts… and seems to use the space well enough for the smaller posts.  The last one seemed a bit constrained in the width department.  (Please, no comments about “It's the girth, not the length.”)

If you like it, say so…  if not, say so too.

I'm working in a high-energy mode today.  Don't know why, I didn't wake up in one.  It might be that it's the Friday before the first day of classes, and no matter at which school I've been - from elementary to middle to high school to The University of Florida to here, Florida International University, in the energy that pervades the school campus in the days in the run-up to the start of the term, there is an unmistakable buzz.  Add to that, I'll be taking classes (okay: class) this term, and I fall into the buzz.

Can't wait to get underway in classes myself.  Tuesday.  Of course I'll keep you, my good friends and readers, apprised of my progress in this semester's GPA gamble: Statistics I.